What “Might” Happen Tuesday

Things to Look for on Election Night

The short answer is that I have no idea. Anyone who says they do, is wrong. They don’t. That’s the TL;DR. If you want it short, you can stop reading now.

For those who stayed (if any), here are a few things to look for. First a caveat. While I am talking about the presidential part of the election, that is possibly no more important than the Senate and House races. I am not forgetting them. In fact, I think that these will be largely bellwethers and as such, are the ones to really pay attention to on Tuesday night.

So, far as the Senate and President go, there are 4 possibilities after Tuesday night (or whenever it’s finally decided).

  1. Trump WinsSenate stays Republican
  2. Trump Wins Senate goes to the Democrats
  3. Biden WinsSenate stays Republican
  4. Biden Wins.Senate goes to the Democrats

For Republicans, the only positive outcome in #1. Even though Trump wins in outcome #2, if the Senate is Democrat, the chances of the House impeaching again and the Senate convicting, are astronomical. Trump will not serve for 4 years. That is almost a guarantee.

Further, this would mean almost certainly that Trump won by a small electoral majority. Leftist groups will be on the streets causing chaos. This is not a scare tactic or red meat for Conservatives. Leftist groups are planning this, and will happen (possibly in any Trump win). It would also mean that Trump will have won with a smaller total number of votes than in 2016 nationally (most likely). That would be more fuel for the “Resist!” crowd.

While #3 is not a dream for Democrats either, it might also create as much chaos as the second option. I also think that this option is the least likely of all possibilities.

Option #4 is a nightmare scenario. Even for average Democrats, I don’t see how it could be palatable. If the Dems had total power of both branches, the Supreme Court would be the only bulwark. The possibility of court-packing would be pretty certain. Ending the Senate filibuster rule would also happen, and the Democrats dream of getting rid of the Electoral College would be on the agenda.

I don’t think that last one would happen. I think that Democrats might try it, but there are still too many Republican or even moderate states. If the Electoral College were to end, the United States would break up. States would leave. But, even if the Supreme Court is packed, that might start to happen too. So, for all but the most Left-leaning of Democrats, having control of both the Presidency and the Senate should be scary.

The only real hopes for a Republican win are either that the polling is wrong by a small amount, and it continues to improve for Trump. In this case, he squeaks out a win. The other possibility is that there is a hidden Red Wave.

I do see those as real possibilities. Trump does seem to have momentum. The nice thing is, early returns will show what is happening. Here are the 5 states to watch on Tuesday night.

  1. Maine. Biden will likely win here. Every poll shows it. Most have him winning by double-digits. Quinnipiac has him winning by 21%. All the polls also show Sara Gideon beating incumbent RINO Susan Collins by single-digits (except for Quinnipiac), but some are even in the margin of error. What to watch: Does Susan Collins win? If she does, then either the polls were not accurate, or we’re seeing a Red Wave. If Susan Collins wins, and Trump loses by single digits, or miraculously wins, we are seeing a Red Wave. If Trump wins Maine, the election is over. Turn off the TV.
  2. North Carolina. Incumber Republican Senator Thom Tillis has been down in the polls by single digits. The numbers have been tightening on this race in recent weeks, and are now within the margin of error. For Trump, this race is basically tied in the polls. Most show the winner within the margin of error, some showing Trump, others showing Biden. What to watch: Does Trump win or lose by a lot? Does Thom Tillis lose by a lot. Slight wins for Trump do not negate the polls, but landslides denote a Red Wave.
  3. Michigan. This state is a huge canary in the coal mine. All polls are showing the incumbent Democrat, Gary Peters, beating Republican challenger, John James. His lead is in the mid to high single digits, outside of the margins or error. What to watch: If Peters wins by a small margin, or if James wins, it might portend a Trump victory. It also might show that Trump is doing very well with black voters. Further, if Trump wins, then it will likely be a bad night for Democrats.
  4. Georgia. Do not pay attention to the Senate race in this one. It’s weird. But in the Presidential election, some polls have Trump ahead, some Biden, some tied. No major poll shows the winner outside of the margin of error. What to watch: The winner here will show how accurate these polls have all really been. It is an early one to watch.
  5. Arizona. While this is a later state to watch, being on the Western side of America (but Arizona will be with the rest of Mountain Time on Tuesday), the polls have recently flipped, showing Trump with a very narrow lead. This is mostly within the margin or error here. What to watch: If Trump wins by more than 5%, then we have a Read Wave for sure.

If you want to research this yourself…

Here are a few good links to look at

…and Suddenly the Election Calculations all Change

Supreme Court calculations header

Ruth Bader Ginsburg (RBG) is now gone at 87. She was an icon of the Left, and she should be respected as a Justice of the Supreme Court. She was also a child of God, whether she knew so or not, and her death should be appropriately honored.

…Queue the arguing in…3,2,1…now.

In the brief hours since this was announced, I’ve been gaming things out in my mind, and here’s the political terrain as I see it.

Before we discuss this, it might be good to watch Glenn Beck’s discussion of his view of Leftist’s plan concerning the election. I’ve linked the video below. It is long and alarmist, but if you don’t hear alarm bells now, then perhaps you need to check your hearing.

So, the thing about Glenn Beck is that he might sound crazy, but in my experience he’s often right. While his seeming craziness is openly mocked by folks, he keeps racking up the wins. In this case, I hope he’s wrong…but I don’t think he is.

What can disarm these predicted outcomes, and what he alludes to in the video, is the prayerful action of patriots and average Americans which can save us. God has miraculously intervened for this nation before, and we should pray for that now.

Having said that, I think that with the death of RBG the potential for the crazies to do their thing just increased 10-fold, and I have no doubt that are ratcheting-up their amps to 11 as we speak.

But what are Trump and the Republicans to do now? Well, the nice thing, and really the only nice thing in all of this, is that there really aren’t a whole lot of possible chess moves to calculate here. So, let’s look at them 1 by 1.

There are Options 1, 2, and 3 (the only winning option for the Republicans). You can click these to jump between them, if you want to scan through it quickly.

Option 1 – Republicans don’t fill the empty seat until the election is over

The news media and the Democrats, heck, maybe even some Republicans (we’re looking at you Murkowski) will be screaming for this. I’m not being hyperbolic. There will be screaming, and not just in the streets. No matter what happens, the media and Democrats (but I repeat myself) will be using these talking points.

They will also be saying that if Trump replaces RBG then the court will be “out of balance.” They will use these words. That will be the talking point here. They will also be threatening that if Trump fills the seat that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe V. Wade. But you won’t hear that verbatim as much as you’ll hear things about “Taking reproductive rights away from women,” “controlling women’s bodies,” and even crazier things if the Republicans seem to not be acquiescing to their demands.

This would be the path of least resistance for sure, but it would lead to doom. First, the Democrats and the media will be talking about Obama’s last year and Antonin Scalia. This is a ruse. Dan McLaughlin has a great examination of it on National Review, here. His take on it is that there is no parallel, and historical precedent is actually on his side. Just a quick fact that he points out: 22 presidents have been faced with similar situations (including Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, FDR, etc.) and all 22 times they’ve filled the seat.

If Trump waits until after the election to fill the seat there are two possibilities:

If Biden wins...
Then Trump could lame-duck force through a nomination which would end up in possibly revolution-level chaos in the streets. Many Republicans might even be pressured into waiting for Biden’s (I mean Harris’) presidency. If Biden wins, then the Leftists and Democrats will be completely aligned and emboldened, because they know that they only need to cause chaos for 2 months or so. Remember, there are enough Democrats and allies in the Senate to cause weeks of Senatorial gridlock anyway.

If Trump wins…
Then he is completely unfettered and willing to move on this, depending on how the Senate will look in January. If the Senate flips, then a Supreme Court seat will likely not get filled for 4 years. This means that if the Senate flips, it is exactly the same for Trump as it is if Biden wins, except that The Senate will be more empowered to act if the know that the Republicans won’t be in power. In short, this option is the most confusing, but is really just navel-gazing, I think.

Here’s why this is not likely: The media and Dems like this the most (at least they seem to), and that means it is the worst choice for Republicans, and Conservatives particularly. In almost every single outcome, the Democrats get their way. Trump has never bowed to pressure from people who hate him. He actually tends to run quickly into a fight, which is exactly why some people love him. He never bows out. For him to do so in this case is very anti-Trump.

Furthermore, this is a poor election tactic. If Republicans wait, then the knowledge that Democrats need to turn out in large numbers in the election in order to “keep abortion legal,” “protect women,” or whatever narrative works, will be a loud klaxon for anyone like-minded, and that will include many of the so-called independents. This issue will drive voters to vote for Biden. It will steal any narrative from Trump about Biden and allow the Democrats and the media to be in complete control.

Finally, unless Trump wins and the Republicans win in the Senate, then the Democrats win this fight completely.

Option 2 – Trump does nominate a replacement, but the Senate doesn’t vote to confirm

This is a second-level fight for the Dems. It doesn’t matter whom the President nominates, the media and Dems will push to have them hold this up. The Dems will use every tactic imaginable. In fact, they could even use the hide-away tactic to prevent quorum. I’m not sure that we’ll see this tactic, because there aren’t enough Democrats (plus Murkowski) for this to work at all. Senate rules take this option largely away. But if it could stop this, they would take it that far.

Here’s why this is not likely. The problem with the Republicans failing to confirm is that this would be seen as a massive failure by most like-minded Americans. It would be demoralizing, and it would decrease Republican voter turnout. This might actually create a Blue Wave scenario, and thus Republicans cannot have that happen. This might also be the only path for Trump winning the election and Republicans losing the Senate. In every other case, the Senate is tied to the presidential election.

Option 3 – Trump nominates a replacement, and the Senate does confirm, filling the seat.

Unfortunately, there is no way that this option doesn’t end in complete chaos. Let’s remember, although chaos is bad for sure, it is a distraction from the issue. It is surprising that the American people are being told to vote for Biden, or the Leftists will burn the country down.

Trump will likely not cave in to the Democrats and media, and the Senate Republicans cannot afford to not confirm.

At that point, the media and Democrats will respond with the only card that they have left in their hand, the Joker…the chaos card.

There will be people in the streets. There will be rioting way worse than we’ve seen recently. The big agents funding this chaos will go into overdrive and the money will flow. This plays right into the hands of those who want to create the vision that Glenn Beck describes.

Here’s why this IS likely.

1 – If Trump and the Senate Republicans go this route, it might lead to revolution-level strife. But, this is the only option that might create a good outcome. First, this is unexpected, and falls far prior to the planned chaos after the election. If Trump nominates a justice very quickly, it will kind of catch the agitators flat-footed. Unfortunately, because they already have plans in place, it might be easier to mobilize now than if they had nothing. However, it messes up their plans quite a bit. They won’t have the control that they planned at all. Also, they only have so much that they can be outraged about before either outrage-fatigue sets in, or the American people simply stop them.

2 – This is why Trump should move quickly. He should name a successor to RBG, and the Senate should start confirmation this week. The talking points on the other side will be complaints that they aren’t honoring the memory of RBG, and that there isn’t sufficient time to vet the nominee. If the Democrats and media (we really need a portmanteau term for them) use these words, then we know that Trump/Senate is using good strategy.

3 –The Democrat plan for the rioting is to stop it ASAP. That is why there has been less news of street-level craziness in the past few days. Unfortunately for them, the powers that be do not have control of the BLM and Antifa types. They never did. But they do have some goals in common, and they do have channels of communication.

Also, increasingly (not totally yet) these people are wresting control of the Democrat party. That is why they are more scary than ever, actually. Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and even Chuck Schumer are becoming pawns to the real power brokers. They know that it is a very tenuous power balance. They still do hold some sway, and the agitators have gotten the message: “Calm the strife down, or the Republicans will win in November.” That is why suddenly the Dems are calling for calm and order.

This will all flip-flop if Trump nominates. They both will not be able to stop the chaos, and they won’t really want to. But, the same reason that they are calling for order now will be the case in the future. Americans have grown tired of people in the streets. More chaos will drive out more Trump voters, and at the same time, suppress and even change some Biden voters.

4 – A Trump landslide increasingly looks realistic. On one side are anti-Trump voters which will never support anything he says or does. On the other side are pro-Trumpers who are more nuanced, but mostly the opposite. However, there is a vast middle ground. For instance, everyone talks about suburban women, who are in no way as monolithic as they say. But this middle ground has been really mostly weary of the political fighting. Studies have been showing this. They are just tired. But, they do care about their safety and they care about their country. For Dems, it is these voters that they have to get in order to wins the election. So, they are hoping that the narrative of rioting and looting disappears before the election…and it just did, but if Trump follows this strategy, the narrative will be replaced by more of the same.

5 – While a looming Supreme Court seat drives voters to the polls, a just filled seat will do the opposite. If the seat is empty, some people will be swayed by “Republicans are trying to take away women’s rights.” Anyone with sense knows that the legalization of abortion will never be overturned wholesale, but the Dem-media (maybe we just portmanteaud it) have never been good at nuance, and see no problem with demagoguery.

But, if there is no seat vacant on election day, the momentum goes the other way. This would be a Democrat disaster, and this is why they will stop at nothing. A filled seat removes the drive for voter turn-out.

6 – While the Republicans are often easy to scare off of their strategy, Trump is the opposite. When faced with 3 options, he looks willing to often choose the riskier one with the bigger payout.

7 – It is easy to forget in all of this sausage-making, but this is the Supreme Court. The court is slightly left of center. If Trump replaces one of the bastions of Leftism with a Constitutional originalist (and therefore, a likely Conservative) jurist, that will reorient the court completely. Filling that seat right now means that Biden might not get a Supreme Court pick at all, even if he’s elected

So, not only will Trump choose this option, but he and the Republicans must choose this option, nominate and confirm a Supreme Court seat. The Democrats/agitators will stop at nothing to prevent that from happening. They have no choice.

Nothing but the News

Mostly Peaceful Protests burn Portland…again

Downtown Portland– Peaceful protestors gathered for a 101st night in downtown Portland Tuesday in order to advocate for equitable public policy toward black Americans and end police brutality. “We just want our black, non-conforming, and Wiccan xi’s and xim’s to be free of violence,” Antifa General and Flower Prince/Princess Karen “Unicorn” Rutledge told reporters over the weekend. “Our message is that simple.”

Karen Rutledge pictured giving instructions to other members (she’s the one in black, wearing a face covering).

Protestors are increasingly upset by negative media attention to their cause. “We are no different than anyone else. We are normal people,” said Mister Smash (who didn’t want to reveal his real name, for fear of retribution. “I put my pants on one leg at a time, myself. I don’t let my mom do that for me. She’s not even allowed into my room anymore.”

Alan “Mister Smash” Nusbaum pictured all dressed up before taking the long limo ride to the night’s protests.

Mister Smash isn’t new to the protesting world. “I went to my first protest when I was 16,” Smash says in a thoughtful moment. “The courts had just released two cops who brutally murdered an innocent man and nothing was going to stop me from making sure that justice was done.”

Smash was referring to two Portland PD officers who were involved in a now infamous incident in the “skid row” district of Portland. The officers were trying to make an arrest of the “Nursing Home Rapist,” who had just escaped from prison after murdering 3 guards with his bare hands and stealing their firearms. The two policemen shot and killed the man after he shot out all four tires of their police car and broke out the windows. The officers were later acquitted in court, sparking city-wide protests. “It was just another case of the cops murdering a person of color.”

After the trial was over the officers were fired by the mayor of Portland. The city rules give the mayor plenary power over all police matters as well as the usual mayor duties. The policemen had been defended by Mister Smash’s father, prominent Portland attorney Phillip Nusbaum. “It all turned out OK, though. The cops got off scott-free, but my dad gave me a thousand bucks for my protesting club and a new car. So basically, justice was done.”

At around 9:30 the night’s “Protest against Racial violence, Sexual repression, Genderism, Capitalism, Wealthyism, and Right-Wing Media bias” launched into high gear. Protestors peacefully occupied the middle of Capital Street Bridge, and lit the bridge on fire. “It was a statement about repression. It was beautiful.” said Karen Rutledge. Paramedics treated 12 peaceful protestors for smoke inhalation, and the protestors were quickly able to recover and return to protesting, peacefully.

Peaceful protestors trapped on bridge

The group then left and gathered later in front of the Resting Sunset Retirement Home on Fourth Avenue. “Down with the f****** cops!” “Yo ho, capitalism has got to go.” and “No justice, no peace. These streets are not your streets…anymore.” The peaceful protestors chanted in unison out of their pre-prepared protest chant books.

Peaceful protestors in front of the Resting Sunset Retirement Home

Translating The Bible

The other day I was in church and the sermon focused on a particular passage in the Bible’s book of Acts. It was a pretty well known passage in Acts 2 that talks about the first Christians. After Jesus had ascended into heaven, the Spirit of God had empowered the first Christians to do miraculous things, and huge things were happening that caused the explosive growth of the number of believers. The passage goes like this. Continue reading

2019 Predictions

As each year turns to the next I try to right out what events and trends I think will take place in the year to come.  As I say each time, this is neither astrology nor an attempt at prophecy.  I am simply making an educated guess at what I think will happen.  The purpose is actually for my own amusement.  Part of it is hubris, as I am addicted to saying “I told you so.”  But it is harmless fun, unless you are one of those people that gets mad at the weatherman if it rains on your wedding day.

    1. I wish that this year upcoming will be filled with a mix of pretty good, and some not as good—but I highly doubt that. I believe (and don’t at all wish) that this year will be one of the worst years that anyone in this country truly remembers. I tend to be a political pessimist, but this goes deeper than that.

Continue reading

Humphrey and The Trade

Humphrey digital header

When I was a kid I remember watching a short Disney cartoon that made an indelible impression on me. It showed a bear named Humphrey, who desperately wanted some fish. He swiped at the lake over and over, and all that he ended up with was a tiny minnow. As he held it above the water, sad that it was so tiny, a bigger fish jumped up and swallowed it whole.

At that point he had an epiphany.   He could hold the fish over the water and one by one collect the larger fish that jumped up to eat the minnow. Soon his arms were full of large fish. Just as he was about to walk away a fish bigger than all the others floated by. He dropped all of the other fish and pounced. Continue reading

Stealing the Sunrise

Sunrise Header

In my first year of college, I pulled a lot of all-nighters—and not the wimpy ones where you go to sleep at 3 AM and then get a good 6 hours sleep before going to class. No, I mean staying up until the sun rose and then going to class without having slept at all. I did this because as a Political Science major I had a lot of reading to do. I have always been a good reader but a bit of a slow one, so that meant spending a lot of late hours reading, and chewing ice to stay awake.

I remember one night I finished my homework around 4:30 AM. My morning class was at 9, and I knew that 3 ½ hours sleep would end up only being worse than if I hadn’t slept at all. So, I made the decision to walk somewhere off campus and watch the sunrise. In my young man’s mind this was a good idea and I don’t know if I’d experienced a sunrise before. Continue reading

Joseph

Nativity HeaderI come from a long line of talkers. My lineage is filled with teachers and preachers and others known for their speeches. The holiday dinner tables growing up were always a place where the noise never stopped, and if you wanted to get a word in edge-wise you had to jump in at any pause for breath. Of all my relatives, my mom can out talk anyone. I’ve had hour-long phone conversations with her where my only part was “hello…” and she took it from there.

Let’s just say the apple hasn’t fallen far from the tree. I’m a talker too. I’ve struggled with it my whole life. If they had an anonymous support group, which I suggest calling On-an-on-and-on-annon. I would weekly stand at the front saying, “My name is Ryan, and I’m a talkaholic.”

Continue reading

Aunt Grace

Schoolroom

The other day I read an article talking about how the teaching of cursive handwriting is being completely abandoned in school, mostly because computers have made it unimportant.  I disagree, but largely because I was taught cursive, and use it primarily in my handwriting.  I can’t imagine how printing could be anywhere close to as efficient as cursive when you have to use pen and paper.

I have never had beautiful handwriting, and I’ve never particularly enjoyed physical writing compared to typing on a keyboard.  Despite this fact, the story of my learning this skill  is an important one in my childhood.  It is a tale involving a discouraging 1st grade teacher, a converted home schoolhouse, and a really old woman. Continue reading