Every year I create my predictions for the year ahead. Before I post this, I try to do my most thorough analysis of the previous year’s predictions. Here is my analysis. Continue reading
A child, a knife, yet another life and another cut down
I heard it on the news this morning
In the car
on the way
—a news report.
Some child had gone to school and in the place where other children learn and play
he had done the unspeakable
And now there are kids in stretchers
and hospital rooms
Life cut short at the end of an angry knife
Innocence ended with a sharp pain
that doesn’t end as quickly as a wound will heal
Now come the questions
The endless clacking of TV jaws
plastic as the sets from which they’re watched
and maybe great law-makers will all shake hands
And do their canned jams from grandstands
Only using the tragedy to prove their existence justified
And just do something
“If only one child…”
“Please we must…”
“But this would’ve saved”
And a million “why’s”
Not the kind that the saddened families will ask
But a “why” that ends in a “why” or a lie
In the end
It’s just for cameras
Another law may pass
or it won’t
for the truth is
The truth. If it matters to such as these
That these great tragedies
are what they are—evil.
There is no Why other than a troubled kid
Some dysfunction or anger, or social, or blah-blah
He was one of us—although he wasn’t
at least, we’ll say
It wasn’t the knife
or the gun
or the bomb
or the fist, or bat, or rock
That–the plastic jaws leave unsaid
For then we’d have to face the evil in us
the evil we let be and grow and fester
We would stare into the mirror
and our evil would stare back at us
Every January I try to make a few predictions for the upcoming year. This is not astrology, tea leaf reading, or prophecy. I am simply making some informed guesses based upon observations. My track record is pretty good, but it is certainly less than 100%. Here are a few:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average high on January 1st was 16,500+. On the last trading day of the year, The Dow will be a net loss (under 16,500) for the year. I am guessing that there will be a large correction period this year, but it could also be from fallout from a major political event, or a world event.
- There will be a major political change in North Korea. I cannot see the Kim Jung Un regime lasting another 12 months. I know that part of North Korea’s strategy is to appear weaker than it actually is (see Stratfor’s analysis), but I think the regime is more tenuous than many believe. This regime change will likely come from an internal coup rather than an external invasion. I must admit that this is more wish than anything, but I do believe this has a good likelihood.
- The NSA related security issue will be one of the biggest stories of 2014, just like it was this year. However, part of 2014’s story will be about the private sector trying to both solve consumers’ desire for security. There will be new products and maybe even new companies creating products and services to safeguard consumers’ private data. Some of these will be mostly hoaxes, although there might be some new creative technology. There will also be a rising popular push for keeping private information off of the internet
- There is a high likelihood of Israel being a much more significant newsmaker than last year. The possibility of a strike on Iran has increased significantly after the last American and Iranian presidential elections. The ramifications of this would also be huge. Even if there is no Israeli strike on Iran, I believe there will be significant West Bank/Palestinian related violence, perhaps even another intifada.
- Gas prices will end the year lower than the $3.12 they are at now.
- Hollywood movies will be remarkably more upbeat in tone than they were in 2013. This will be especially true of the Summer Blockbusters, which will feature less apocalypse porn than in recent years.
- Hilary Clinton will formally announce her candidacy for President this Summer. She will announce this Spring that she is going on a “listening tour” and will announce her presidency surrounded by a sense that people are crying out for her to run.
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