I’ve had quite a few people ask some version of, “What’s going to happen on election night?”
The short answer is that I think it’s going to go really well for Republicans. I think we are going to win races that the talking heads in the media haven’t even been talking about.
But more than predicting what I’m guessing will happen, to de-stress over it, we all might enjoy a little game, and it’ll help add some fun for those of us who don’t get as into watching poll returns as I do. For me, it’s like the Super Bowl, World Series, and Stanley Cup all rolled into one night.
The big question that everyone is on pins-and-needles over, is what will the main outcome be. I see there being 4 categories that could explain what is happening on Tuesday night, as the election returns . Will it be:
A – A giant Red Tsunami that will send Republicans to controlling seats of the House, Senate, and many governorships
B- A mini Red Wave which hands Republicans control of the House, but not the Senate, a few pickups of governorships, but not wins in a lot of the neck-and-neck races
C- The Democrat firewall holds, leaving a Democrat House and Senate, and no substantial Republican governorship wins
D- A Big D night, causing many people scratching their heads as Joe Biden does a victory lap celebrating Democrat wins in the close races, and even in some unexpected places where they weren’t expected to claim victory.
Let’s make a scorecard so that we all can play at home in front of our TV sets as we watch election returns. The game is simple, but here’s how it works…
The night’s election returns will come in according to time zones, of course. So, let’s have 3 sections for the time zones of the Eastern States, Middle States, and Western States. One extra section will be a whole country kind of thing. I’ve grouped Central and Mountain time zones (Middle States) not because I’m belittling them at all. Heck, I’m in one, myself. But, there just aren’t as many competitive races in those states currently, and since we could only have 4 sections (for the sake of the math), it makes sense to group those together.
So, here we go…
- New York Governor’s race
The race is against the current governor Hochul (who inherited the job after the last guy did some really bad things) and Republican challenger, Lee Zeldin. Kathy Hochul was considered the heir apparent, but now pollsters mostly are putting the race in a statistical tie. More Conservative upstate New York often gets outvoted by the big city, but the X factor in the race is whether those in the NYC boroughs are tired of all the crime and etc, and vote for change.
– If Zeldin gets the win, add 1 pt.
- Pennsylvania Senate
This has been one of the biggest races in the news. Dr. Mehmet Oz stepped away from being a TV personality in order to face off against the near-vegetable John Fetterman. Fetterman had a stroke in the primary. Everyone feels sorry for his condition, but those who have watched his recent debate performance know that he isn’t capable of doing the job of Senator. At the start of the campaign, he was by far the leader, but now most pollsters have the race tied, or at least really close.
– If Oz wins that race, add 1 pt.
- Ohio Senate
The Ohio Senate race is against a 10 time Democrat incumbent and the Republican challenger and author of the book Hillbilly Elegy. JD Vance. This race was supposed to be close, but wasn’t initially. Lately, JD Vance has turned on the afterburners, though. We’ll see after Tuesday.
– If Vance wins, add 1 pt.
- Georgia Senate
In 2020, the Georgia Senate race went to a guy named Raphael Warnock after President Trump got mad and told people not to vote. I don’t have anything positive to say about Warnock. He’s a grifter, a race-hustler, and he makes enormous amounts of money as the preacher of Martin Luther King Junior’s old church, while simultaneously advocating positions that seriously Christians never would. But he does make over $7k per month in his churches housing allowance alone (his actually salary is a different, unholy amount), so he isn’t exactly a poor country preacher. His campaign also forked out $11k in donated campaign funds to Warnock himself for childcare costs this year, in order to take care of his own children.
Warnock’s opponent is Hershel Walker, a very flawed candidate and former football player. He has a hard time stringing a sentence together, but he has good folksy charm and debated very well against Warnock. This race between poor candidates is razor-thin.
– If Walker pulls out the W, add 1 pt.
- Texas Governor
Texas likes to elect incumbents. I learned that lesson first hand while working full-time for a Republican challenger for Congress. There is a lot of momentum behind the incumbent Governor, Greg Abbott. But, if we’ve learned anything about his Democrat challenger Robert Francis O’Rourke, it is that he doesn’t give up. He does whatever he can to win, especially if he thinks going by the the name Beto, in order to court Latinos will do the trick. He has run for Senate, President, and now Governor. Although I wouldn’t vote for him for County Dog Catcher, that might be more his speed. He will lose. The question is, how bad will it be.
– If Abbot wins by more than 5%, add 1 pt.
- Colorado Senate
Colorado’s incumbent Senator is a guy named Michael Bennet and Joe O’Dea is the Republican challenger. This race was firmly going to the Democrats until very recently, and now some pollsters are saying it is a toss up.
– If O’Dea wins that race, add 1 pt.
- Utah Senate
Utah is represented in the Senate by one of the most Conservative Senators, Mike Lee. I will ignore their other Senator who isn’t running, for the moment (and that level of moronism is hard to ignore). His challenger, Evan McMullen, is pretending to be an Independent. He is trying to convince Utahans that Lee is too conservative for them. We’ll see if the voters fall for it.
– If Lee pulls it out, add 1 pt.
- All of Central & Mountain Time *except for Illinois
A big question that is ignored is if any Democrat at all in a Senate race will win in the middle of the country. A few notes about this category. *Illinois is it’s own beast here. Illinois is much more an Eastern state in this regard. Also, Arizona is always a switch-hitter time zone-wise. For this game, Arizona will be in the Western states.
– If Republicans hold all C & Mt. States *excepting Illinois, add 1 pt.
- Arizona Senate
Mark Kelly, the Democrat in the race, has not served an entire term. But he hopes to be elected for the first time. Blake Masters is the Republican challenger. Polls are a bit all over the place here. Fox News has Kelly leading, but only by a couple of points, and inside the margin of error. Trafalgar has Master’s over Kelly and slightly beating that margin of error. Arizona does have the infamous ballot drop boxes. A lot of people point out the strong possibility of fraud with these drop boxes, but Arizona has changed their laws in the last year, requiring signature verification on these dropped-off ballots. This means that the outcome of the race could be up in the air for days. But if Masters wins on Tuesday, then that outcome likely won’t change.
– If Masters beats Kelly, add 1 pt.
- Nevada Senate
Cortes-Masto is the Democrat incumbent here. Adam Laxalt is the Republican Challenger. Nevada was very hard hit by the Covid lockdowns, which really affected their economy. A few of the recent crime headlines have included Las Vegas, and have been a big deal. However, Las Vegas has the lions-share of the vote count in the state. The unions in Las Vegas are very powerful, and always support the Democrats. Let’s also remember that Cortes-Masto is Lantina. There are a lot of Latinos in NV, and so the identity vote could go for her easily. This state is a little bit more rogue than many other states, and could go either way.
– If Laxalt is triumphant, add 1 pt.
- Washington Senate
Patty Murray is the Dem incumbent, here. Washington shouldn’t be in question…or so you’d think. However, the Eastern side of the state is as Red as Seattle is Blue. It just is always outvoted by King county and the surrounding areas near Seattle. Will Tiffany Smiley pull out the win?
– If Smiley edges out Murray, add 1 pt.
- Oregon Governor
It’s hard to imagine Oregon voting for a Republican. However, we’d easily forget that some of the Western counties voted in the last presidential election for Trump in higher percentages than just about anywhere else. There are a lot of interesting things happening in Oregon in this election, actually. But let’s see if Republican Christine Drazen can upset Tina Kotek and become the first Republican governor of this state since 1982. That’d drive Portlandia insane, and might be worth it just for that reason alone.
– If Drazen can beat Kotek, add 1 pt.
- Michigan Governor
The current Michigan governor is Democrat
Cruella DeVilleGretchen Witmer. The Republican challenger is Tudor Dixon. Dixon has surged in the polls. Whitmer became quite famous for draconian lockdowns during Covid (except when her own family was involved). We’ll see what election day brings.
– If Dixon beats Covid lockdown queen, add 1 pt.
- Florida Governor
No one can fathom DeSantis not winning in Florida. I think that the question is, by how much will he win?
– If DeSantis destroys Crist by more than 10%, add 1 pt.
- Arizona Governor
The state of Arizona is in a close contest between Democrat, Katie Hobbs, against Republican challenger Kari Lake. If you mix them up, Lake is the one who isn’t afraid of a debate and doesn’t run from reporters asking questions.
– If Lake beats Hobbs, add 1 pt.
- Senate Control
At the start of this election season, odds makers said that the Republicans had a 50-50 shot of controlling the Senate. Then Summer came, and those chances seemed to go way down. Now, they are back up, maybe even above 50%.
– If the Republicans win the Senate, add 1 pt.
Now, let’s score the election
Put the final total in the box below
Here’s What Your Election Score Means!
12 – 16 Pts. Repulican Tsunami
The Republicans very likely took both the House and Senate. Also, the Giant Red Wave will have Republican leadership implications. The forces of Republican establishment will probably lose power, or at least not have the power they once did. This means that The Turtle (Mitch McConnell) will have a very difficult time holding onto power in the Senate.
And for that reason alone we see why Mitch has made many moves that seem like they were aimed at creating Republican losses, not victory. They likely were. The power brokers in Washington think it’s better to be a minority leader than an ousted Majority one. Bye-bye Turtle man.
This election will also mean a whole host of things for the Democrats. I foresee them not learning lessons about the unpalatability of their positions and going into a nasty defensive posture. It will also likely mean that President Brandon will abdicate his throne for a newly opened spot at Golden Horizons Senior Assisted Living. This will have to happen before January. He’ll probably cite a health problem. The Veep will ascend and become President Word Salad, which the media will make into a huge faux celebration (“first woman of color President” and other intersectional nonsense).
8 – 11 Pts. A mini Red Wave
Republicans probably took the House and likely did not take the Senate. This is a recipe for a whole lot of arguing over the next 2 years, and little else.
The House will push Republican agenda items and the Senate will push Democrat ones. Actually, this scenario is probably the best-case one for the long-term continuation of the Democrat power structure, and the worst-case for Republicans. The regime will get to claim credit for any wins, while simultaneously blaming all failures on the Republicans.
Joe Biden probably will remain as President, and the chances of reelection in 2024 look pretty good now.
4 – 7 Pts. The Democrat Firewall Holds
The scenario shows basically a tie with mostly equal Dem and R wins. Republicans probably don’t win the House, and certainly don’t retake the Senate.
I don’t think the country could handle this very well. Republicans see the Biden administration as an outgrowth of Covid policies run amok that made the 2020 election an easy one to cheat. A plurality, if not majority of Republicans think this. They aren’t wrong.
The outgrowth of this situation will probably end with more fracturing, and the Democrats will see this as a mandate for insane policy. It won’t be a mandate, of course, but they don’t really care about this fact.
0 – 3 Pts. A Big D Night
Everything that I said in the section above holds for this scenario as well, except that this means that the Democrats did win big and do have a mandate.
I don’t see how we could recover as a country from this. I’m not an alarmist usually, but if this happens it may be time to move to that far off island.