6 Election Predictions for 2022

For months I’ve been saying these things, but I realize that it doesn’t count until it’s actually in writing.  So, here are my 6 predictions for the coming election.

  1. In October, or even into November (but before the election) Trump will be indicted.  I think that it won’t be just Trump at the end of the day.  It’ll be others in his sphere too, but I can’t tell if that will happen later, or at the same time.

    It will feel sort of “night of the long knives” for those history buffs among us. 

    Analysis suggests that the key to the election is still Trump, but not in the way that some might think.  Biden has been a complete disaster, and it isn’t even worth discussing.  Partisans who are touting his success seem like the parade watchers clapping at the king with no clothes on.  But just like in that fairy tale, everyone knows that he’s a skin bag of terrible decisions and incompetence without any armor.  He’s not in charge, and its just common knowledge that a super-group of far left puppet-masters are leading the country.  Anyone who argues to the contrary is just not taken seriously by anyone.

    So, conventional wisdom is that if the coming election is a referendum on Biden and the Democrat leadership, then the Republicans will win in a landslide.

    But conversely, if the election is all about Trump, his continued foibles, and January 6th then the Democrats could prevent that landslide, and maybe even pick up a few seats.  Biden supposedly won not because people loved Joe Biden, but because there was a significant hatred of Trump. 

    I mostly agree with this logic.  But I also think that this is possibly not as much the case in a number of circumstances that will characterize this election.

    Let’s start off with the fact that Trump isn’t president.  Biden is.  Democrats pointing at Trump will eventually have the same political power as complaining about the policies of Martin Van Buren. 

    Many Americans see the FBI raids on Trump as persecution and are motivated to go and vote for Republicans.  A lot of polls are showing this.  There are many people who see the whole situation around Trump as more of the political and media establishment doing anything (much of it dirty) to get rid of Trump.  He ran and won as an anti-establishment candidate intent on “draining the swamp.”  Indicting Trump would just be another in the long list of persecutions of Trump by the establishment to many Republicans.

    But the Democrat leadership won’t learn this lesson.  Their hatred of Trump can only stop once he is destroyed, and they fail to see the irony that Trump might end up being just as valuable to the Republican cause during a Biden presidency that he was as president.  The January 6th committee charade isn’t destroying him as much as they hoped, neither is the FBI raid on Mira Lago.  A Trump indictment won’t either.

    The Leftists have seem to have all forgotten that martyrs are often more powerful after their deaths (making a political comparison—back off, trolls).
  2. Shortly before the election Leftist groups will ramp up the abortion protests They have to.  It is their only play.  Abortion is the one thing that is seen as a winning issue for Democrats this election cycle.

    It isn’t.

    There are two reasons for this.  First, the nation is not filled with pro-abortion activists.  Yes, when polled, a slim majority of Americans say that abortion shouldn’t be made completely illegal.  But that is a slim majority.  The country is still split down the middle on that issue.

    But Leftists are unable to see that.  They can’t understand that there are people of good faith that believe differently than they do.  This is exacerbated by the fact that many Democrats will not even make friends with Republicans.  So, everyone that they know is ghettoized in their point of view.  As much as they push diversity, they don’t really believe in that diversity at all.  Not when it counts anyway.

    The second reason that this tactic won’t work is that too much time has gone by since the Dobbs decision for it to have political import.  The Dem screaming about dead women on the street, or every woman forced to wear a red dress and bonnet like they are a cast member of their favorite abortion-advocating TV show has lost its drama once people realized that none of those terrible things have happened. 

    Women are not in slaver en masse from pasty Republican men controlling their bodies.  The news is more filled with Leftist states paying for out of state women to come there to have abortions.  People are (and will be) more concerned with things like the economy and the general direction of the country.

    Leftists have a problem with this one.  If they get people riled up too early, then they won’t have time to affect things, but if they go too long, then people will see through it all, and the crazies that want to be at the vanguard of this issue will have a chance to create a lot of sound bites.  There are far more Americans who are against abortion up to 9 months, post-birth abortion (which is a truly Olwellian phrase), and myriad other related bits of crazy, than are for generally legal abortion.  It’ll be interesting to see the timing of this.
  3. Before the election there will be some dramatic and unsettling news that becomes much more the main narrative, than anything else we are discussing here.

    I don’t say this because of any psychic prediction, or that it will be some ploy of American political operatives.  There is too much happening in the world right now for everything to hold together so neatly for the next 2 months.

    Pakistan is a nuclear power on the verge of a total economic apocalypse. China is struggling economically far more that they will allow to be published.  Russia has cut Germany’s gas entirely.  Ukraine has nuclear facilities in the war zone.  This list goes on and on.  Something will happen.  This isn’t even mentioning the economic troubles that we have here in America.
  4. Much of the current polling that shows the Republican and Democrat candidates neck-and-neck in a number of states is inaccurate.  We’ll see what final vote tallies look like.
  5. Stacey Abrams and Robert Francis “Beto” O’rourke will both lose their governor races in Georgia and Texas respectively.  Abrams will still claim that the election was stolen, because she simply can’t understand that she is Hilary Clintoneque intellectually.  If she doesn’t win, that means that the election was either stolen, or the voters were not smart enough.  Unfortunately, to the media “election denial” is only a thing when Republicans do it.
  6. Leftists will respond to the election as Leftists do when they lose.  They won’t say admit defeat and change their narrative to be more appealing.  The people who want the power that winning elections brings aren’t the ones truly in charge their anymore.

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