I’ve been sitting on this for a while, equivocating on all kinds of things. I realize, though, that with news moving as fast as it is, I need to get my predictions for the year published. I don’t want things to happen on this list and later seem like I was post-prognosticating (to wax Shakespearean).
As always, I have to say that this is NOT about predicting the future in a spiritual-type way. I am not psychich, and as a Christian I would never attempt that. It is not intended to be prophecy either. I am not speaking for God or fate. I am simply making educated guesses about what may happen. Also, especially this year, I do not wish many of these things to happen. I am simply guessing that they will. Fortunately for me no one reads my thoughts much, because if they did, in this day and age even guessing that something might happen is enough to get a person attacked by the mob. What a world.
OK, here goes…
- The stock market will have a losing year. On the first day of trading for 2021 (Jan 4th) the Dow Jones high was 30,674. The S&P was at 3,768. The NASDAQ was 12,698. On the last day of trading for 2021, all three will be lower than those values. I suspect that the Dow will have lost the most value, possibly even below 27,000. I think that the NASDAQ will be below 10k.
- Oil prices will increase–and gas will too. The price of a barrel of oil as reported on the NASDAQ listing (CL:NMX), on the first day of trading was $47.62. The prices in Q4 will be around $70. These prices haven’t been seen since 2014.
- The economy will be worse. The US economy will take a major hit, but that won’t be seen until at least later Q3. I am guessing that when it hits, it will hit hard. However, the media and politicians will say this is from both “the Trump economy” and “economic effects from COVID.”
- Houses will be worth less. Median house prices in Los Angeles county are currently at $720,604 (according to http://laalmanac.com/economy/ec37.php). A big bubble will burst in the California housing market. I am not sure if this will happen in 2021 or 2022, but when it does, it will be worse than 2008 for them. Look for the median price to shrink to near $500k at least. This will be even more striking if you look at the average house value. Prices of real estate at the upper end of the market will see the biggest contractions. There will also be a decline in housing values in other places (maybe most places), but California will be worst.
- There will be bankruptcies. Several major retail companies will go completely out of business. I’ve long been predicting the complete demise of Sears, and this might be the year. But look for at least one of the closings to be somewhat unexpected. I have my eye on Nordstroms.
- Big political struggles will increase, and changes will happen. The Leftist cadre seems to be now in complete control of the United States. I think that the assault on other ideologies will be just as big throughout 2021 (unless the Q-believing folks happen to be correct…and that is unpredictable now). I believe that the first issue that they will fixate on will be gun control. Some event of violence will spark this push. I think that the chances are high that this will also lead to ending the filibuster rule in congress, and possibly eventually to an attempt to pack the Supreme Court. If this happens, the narrative will be that the violence must be stopped. They will cite rising violent crime in the cities as part of the reasoning. If the Supreme Court does any action to invalidate this, then there will be a push to pack the court, although the narrative will be “rebalance the court, because it has been packed with conservatives.” If this happens, it might lead to the breakup of the United States. I do think that the chances of this playing out over the next couple of years (not just 2021) are high, although it will be surprising how fast things move in 2021. For the record, I think all of this is a grave tragedy, and will have very bad effects on the world.
- Censorship is only beginning. Tech censorship will continue (and increase) through 2021. This will mean banned accounts of popular Republican-aligned voices. Also, this will not be simply banned Twitter and Facebook accounts. There will be erased bank accounts, servers deleting information, and possibly even providers (like AT&T) censoring. Some of this will end up before the Supreme Court.
- Many companies will tire of the strife. Because of all the arguing, some businesses will decrease bowing to the mob or excluding/apologizing/etc. This will further separate Americans, as some businesses will be seen as “Conservative,” and some as “Leftist.”
- Racial hysteria will lessen. Possibly later in the year, the BLM and racial violence and protest will quiet down.
- Sports will start to return. Baseball will be the first major sport to allow fans back in the stands at all games. However, I don’t know if the major sports will fully recover, ever.
- International relations will become very heated. Some belligerent foreign power will create significant strife that will involve the United States. This could involve one of the familiar list of candidates, like North Korea or Iran. I doubt that this will be from a major power like Russia or China, but will have their backing. I think that this may happen in concert, such as Iran announcing that they have nuclear weapons and North Korea testing missiles, or causing problems in South Korea.