…and Suddenly the Election Calculations all Change

Supreme Court calculations header

Ruth Bader Ginsburg (RBG) is now gone at 87. She was an icon of the Left, and she should be respected as a Justice of the Supreme Court. She was also a child of God, whether she knew so or not, and her death should be appropriately honored.

…Queue the arguing in…3,2,1…now.

In the brief hours since this was announced, I’ve been gaming things out in my mind, and here’s the political terrain as I see it.

Before we discuss this, it might be good to watch Glenn Beck’s discussion of his view of Leftist’s plan concerning the election. I’ve linked the video below. It is long and alarmist, but if you don’t hear alarm bells now, then perhaps you need to check your hearing.

So, the thing about Glenn Beck is that he might sound crazy, but in my experience he’s often right. While his seeming craziness is openly mocked by folks, he keeps racking up the wins. In this case, I hope he’s wrong…but I don’t think he is.

What can disarm these predicted outcomes, and what he alludes to in the video, is the prayerful action of patriots and average Americans which can save us. God has miraculously intervened for this nation before, and we should pray for that now.

Having said that, I think that with the death of RBG the potential for the crazies to do their thing just increased 10-fold, and I have no doubt that are ratcheting-up their amps to 11 as we speak.

But what are Trump and the Republicans to do now? Well, the nice thing, and really the only nice thing in all of this, is that there really aren’t a whole lot of possible chess moves to calculate here. So, let’s look at them 1 by 1.

There are Options 1, 2, and 3 (the only winning option for the Republicans). You can click these to jump between them, if you want to scan through it quickly.

Option 1 – Republicans don’t fill the empty seat until the election is over

The news media and the Democrats, heck, maybe even some Republicans (we’re looking at you Murkowski) will be screaming for this. I’m not being hyperbolic. There will be screaming, and not just in the streets. No matter what happens, the media and Democrats (but I repeat myself) will be using these talking points.

They will also be saying that if Trump replaces RBG then the court will be “out of balance.” They will use these words. That will be the talking point here. They will also be threatening that if Trump fills the seat that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe V. Wade. But you won’t hear that verbatim as much as you’ll hear things about “Taking reproductive rights away from women,” “controlling women’s bodies,” and even crazier things if the Republicans seem to not be acquiescing to their demands.

This would be the path of least resistance for sure, but it would lead to doom. First, the Democrats and the media will be talking about Obama’s last year and Antonin Scalia. This is a ruse. Dan McLaughlin has a great examination of it on National Review, here. His take on it is that there is no parallel, and historical precedent is actually on his side. Just a quick fact that he points out: 22 presidents have been faced with similar situations (including Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, FDR, etc.) and all 22 times they’ve filled the seat.

If Trump waits until after the election to fill the seat there are two possibilities:

If Biden wins...
Then Trump could lame-duck force through a nomination which would end up in possibly revolution-level chaos in the streets. Many Republicans might even be pressured into waiting for Biden’s (I mean Harris’) presidency. If Biden wins, then the Leftists and Democrats will be completely aligned and emboldened, because they know that they only need to cause chaos for 2 months or so. Remember, there are enough Democrats and allies in the Senate to cause weeks of Senatorial gridlock anyway.

If Trump wins…
Then he is completely unfettered and willing to move on this, depending on how the Senate will look in January. If the Senate flips, then a Supreme Court seat will likely not get filled for 4 years. This means that if the Senate flips, it is exactly the same for Trump as it is if Biden wins, except that The Senate will be more empowered to act if the know that the Republicans won’t be in power. In short, this option is the most confusing, but is really just navel-gazing, I think.

Here’s why this is not likely: The media and Dems like this the most (at least they seem to), and that means it is the worst choice for Republicans, and Conservatives particularly. In almost every single outcome, the Democrats get their way. Trump has never bowed to pressure from people who hate him. He actually tends to run quickly into a fight, which is exactly why some people love him. He never bows out. For him to do so in this case is very anti-Trump.

Furthermore, this is a poor election tactic. If Republicans wait, then the knowledge that Democrats need to turn out in large numbers in the election in order to “keep abortion legal,” “protect women,” or whatever narrative works, will be a loud klaxon for anyone like-minded, and that will include many of the so-called independents. This issue will drive voters to vote for Biden. It will steal any narrative from Trump about Biden and allow the Democrats and the media to be in complete control.

Finally, unless Trump wins and the Republicans win in the Senate, then the Democrats win this fight completely.

Option 2 – Trump does nominate a replacement, but the Senate doesn’t vote to confirm

This is a second-level fight for the Dems. It doesn’t matter whom the President nominates, the media and Dems will push to have them hold this up. The Dems will use every tactic imaginable. In fact, they could even use the hide-away tactic to prevent quorum. I’m not sure that we’ll see this tactic, because there aren’t enough Democrats (plus Murkowski) for this to work at all. Senate rules take this option largely away. But if it could stop this, they would take it that far.

Here’s why this is not likely. The problem with the Republicans failing to confirm is that this would be seen as a massive failure by most like-minded Americans. It would be demoralizing, and it would decrease Republican voter turnout. This might actually create a Blue Wave scenario, and thus Republicans cannot have that happen. This might also be the only path for Trump winning the election and Republicans losing the Senate. In every other case, the Senate is tied to the presidential election.

Option 3 – Trump nominates a replacement, and the Senate does confirm, filling the seat.

Unfortunately, there is no way that this option doesn’t end in complete chaos. Let’s remember, although chaos is bad for sure, it is a distraction from the issue. It is surprising that the American people are being told to vote for Biden, or the Leftists will burn the country down.

Trump will likely not cave in to the Democrats and media, and the Senate Republicans cannot afford to not confirm.

At that point, the media and Democrats will respond with the only card that they have left in their hand, the Joker…the chaos card.

There will be people in the streets. There will be rioting way worse than we’ve seen recently. The big agents funding this chaos will go into overdrive and the money will flow. This plays right into the hands of those who want to create the vision that Glenn Beck describes.

Here’s why this IS likely.

1 – If Trump and the Senate Republicans go this route, it might lead to revolution-level strife. But, this is the only option that might create a good outcome. First, this is unexpected, and falls far prior to the planned chaos after the election. If Trump nominates a justice very quickly, it will kind of catch the agitators flat-footed. Unfortunately, because they already have plans in place, it might be easier to mobilize now than if they had nothing. However, it messes up their plans quite a bit. They won’t have the control that they planned at all. Also, they only have so much that they can be outraged about before either outrage-fatigue sets in, or the American people simply stop them.

2 – This is why Trump should move quickly. He should name a successor to RBG, and the Senate should start confirmation this week. The talking points on the other side will be complaints that they aren’t honoring the memory of RBG, and that there isn’t sufficient time to vet the nominee. If the Democrats and media (we really need a portmanteau term for them) use these words, then we know that Trump/Senate is using good strategy.

3 –The Democrat plan for the rioting is to stop it ASAP. That is why there has been less news of street-level craziness in the past few days. Unfortunately for them, the powers that be do not have control of the BLM and Antifa types. They never did. But they do have some goals in common, and they do have channels of communication.

Also, increasingly (not totally yet) these people are wresting control of the Democrat party. That is why they are more scary than ever, actually. Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and even Chuck Schumer are becoming pawns to the real power brokers. They know that it is a very tenuous power balance. They still do hold some sway, and the agitators have gotten the message: “Calm the strife down, or the Republicans will win in November.” That is why suddenly the Dems are calling for calm and order.

This will all flip-flop if Trump nominates. They both will not be able to stop the chaos, and they won’t really want to. But, the same reason that they are calling for order now will be the case in the future. Americans have grown tired of people in the streets. More chaos will drive out more Trump voters, and at the same time, suppress and even change some Biden voters.

4 – A Trump landslide increasingly looks realistic. On one side are anti-Trump voters which will never support anything he says or does. On the other side are pro-Trumpers who are more nuanced, but mostly the opposite. However, there is a vast middle ground. For instance, everyone talks about suburban women, who are in no way as monolithic as they say. But this middle ground has been really mostly weary of the political fighting. Studies have been showing this. They are just tired. But, they do care about their safety and they care about their country. For Dems, it is these voters that they have to get in order to wins the election. So, they are hoping that the narrative of rioting and looting disappears before the election…and it just did, but if Trump follows this strategy, the narrative will be replaced by more of the same.

5 – While a looming Supreme Court seat drives voters to the polls, a just filled seat will do the opposite. If the seat is empty, some people will be swayed by “Republicans are trying to take away women’s rights.” Anyone with sense knows that the legalization of abortion will never be overturned wholesale, but the Dem-media (maybe we just portmanteaud it) have never been good at nuance, and see no problem with demagoguery.

But, if there is no seat vacant on election day, the momentum goes the other way. This would be a Democrat disaster, and this is why they will stop at nothing. A filled seat removes the drive for voter turn-out.

6 – While the Republicans are often easy to scare off of their strategy, Trump is the opposite. When faced with 3 options, he looks willing to often choose the riskier one with the bigger payout.

7 – It is easy to forget in all of this sausage-making, but this is the Supreme Court. The court is slightly left of center. If Trump replaces one of the bastions of Leftism with a Constitutional originalist (and therefore, a likely Conservative) jurist, that will reorient the court completely. Filling that seat right now means that Biden might not get a Supreme Court pick at all, even if he’s elected

So, not only will Trump choose this option, but he and the Republicans must choose this option, nominate and confirm a Supreme Court seat. The Democrats/agitators will stop at nothing to prevent that from happening. They have no choice.

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