2015 Predictions -Review


Every year I create my predictions for the year ahead. Before I post this, I try to do my most thorough analysis of the previous year’s predictions.  Here is my analysis.

  1. Hilary Clinton will announce her candidacy for President, probably in late summer through the end of November. There will be a strong and active lead-up to this. They will also attempt to hide Bill as much as possible, at least until Summer.
    – On March 1, the Wall Street Journal announced that Hilary would announce in April.
    – She announced in a video to “supporters” on April 13th. Although, I am surprised no one noticed that she announced on the thirteenth of the month, I think the Ides of March would be more appropriate
    – Bill Clinton was noticeably quiet for almost the entire year.  At the very end of the year, he started talking again, which was really pounced on by rivals. +4 pts
  2. Republicans will announce throughout 2015. It will be a large group. Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul will all be really active in 2015. You’ll hear from them a lot. They will all likely run.
    – Rand Paul announced his bid for President on April 6th.
    – Ben Carson was on May 3rd.
    -Carly Fiorina was on May 4th.
    -There are a total of 17 Republicans who were in the race at one time, although 5 have since dropped out. +4 pts
  3. Who won’t run? Elizabeth Warren, and in a break with tradition…Joe Biden won’t jump in either.
    – I’m pretty proud of that one.  I was 100%. +4 pts
  4. Obama will veto lots and lots of legislation. The Democrat’s story will still be “the do-nothing Congress, that won’t work bipartisanly.” Interestingly, many Dems will vote on measures like the Keystone pipeline, but won’t vote to override the veto. Because of that, it will be surprising how few times there will even be post-veto votes. This is Democrat strategy so that the Dems can claim to have voted for issues that they never supported.
    – This is a pretty mixed bag.  Obama used 5 vetoes in 2015.  This is actually not a huge amount for a president.  However, most of Obama’s vetoes have been in 2015.  I did envisions more than that. They did vote on the Keystone Pipeline, which Obama vetoed, and Congress did not  override.  He also vetoed the Defense Authorization bill, which many Democrats voted for, but will not vote to override. Overall, the picture is more cloudy than I though it would be.  I give myself 50% on that one. +2 pts
  5. A Supreme Court vacancy will come up. Ruth Ginsburgh is looking likely to me. This will likely be tied to health-related issues. When it happens, it will happen fast.  
    – I was wrong on this one.  We’ll see what happens next year.  Maybe I was just a year off.  Either way, +0 pts.
  6. The Conservatives will get a big court win on either Benghazi, IRS bad behavior, Obamacare, Executive actions, and/or Obama’s immigration action.
    – Of course, the courts ruled very much against any logic on Obamacare, and are currently planning to hear his Executive action on immigration reform.  However, lower courts have all ruled against Obama and it is not sure that the Supreme Court will weigh in on the issue at all.  My intent was that one of these issues would go against Obama.  Because the courts have ruled favorably on Obama’s Executive actions so far (though it is not settled), I’m giving myself +2 pts.
  7. More gay marriage court action legalizing gay marriage. The Supreme Court will rule favorably to gay marriage, maybe steering clear of a sweeping legalization. Gay marriage states will increase.
    – Anyone who has not been under a rock in 2015 knows how this turned out.  Very very sadly +4 pts.
  8. Radio Shack bankrupt—and gone. ***I wrote this one down 5 days prior to the news on January 15th that Radio Shack would likely file for Chapter 11 in the first week of February. I’m not saying that it was a long shot then, but there had been no announcement.  – The previous was written as an update early in the year.  +4 pts
  9. At some point this year the Fed will increase the interest rate.
    – Squeeked this one out at the last minute, but I still get the +4 pts.
  10. The “Internet of things” will really visibly increase. This will also be due to the falling prices of Internet-connective things.
    – This one has been talked about throughout 2015 (although now referred to as IoT).  From Barbie dolls to cars, the story actually morphed throughout the year in “the hackable IoT.” + 4 pts
  11. There will be news of companies doing wacky viral-esque stunts. Some of these will be really cool (look for socially conscious stuff) and some will be massively embarrassing failures.
    -Starbucks decided to help heal the racial divide with #racetogether.  It failed miserably!  However, I think mostly because of the fact that this was so highly criticized, other companies did not follow suit.  I strongly think that if the experiment had been highly praised, there would have been a lot of this.  I give myself +2 pts.
  12. There will be a big number of attempted terrorist attacks in Europe and America. Some of these might be successful. The attacks this year in Paris are only the beginning. Europe will be the new front for a lot of Muslim violence.
    – Remember, when I was writing this in January of 2015, I was talking about different terrorist attacks than we now think of as “the Paris terrorist attacks.”  Two massive terrorist attacks in the US and Europe, as well as those in Turkey and throughout Africa and the Middle East, give me +4 pts on this.  However, let me be clear, that I take no joy in that.  Real people died, and that is a tragedy.  My predictions for the year are a game of sorts, terrorism is not a game.
  13. Iran will not follow through with its nuclear deal with the US
    – The main stream media has largely swept this under the table, but they have not followed the agreement, nor did they ever intend to.  This is what happens when you put a fool in charge of the western world. +4 pts
  14. Russia will have more military actions, possibly in Ukraine and maybe including Belarus.
    – I did not know it would be Syria, but I was undeniably correct. +4 pts
  15. A-la cart TV on the Internet will finally come to fruition, and not just with a couple of channels like HBO. Some channels will do this through their websites and some will partner with existing providers like Netfilx and Amazon.
    HBO announced on April 8th that they were offering untethered service directly to consumers.
    – One of the even bigger moves was that Showtime, Starz, and more than a dozen others became accessible via Amazon Prime. +4 pts
  16. There will be much more talk from the Left on “income inequality,” minimum wage, the rich getting richer, especially in the first half of the year.
    – Does having a whole candidate for President count?   This is the whole presidential platform of the Democrats. If you don’t believe me, look at Hillary’s own website, but please don’t.  She’ll count you as one of the billions in America who will be voting for her. +4 pts
  17. You’ll start hearing the term “Fast-Laning,” This will be one of the words of the year. There will be a rise in no-wait services and products—many through company apps.
    – This did happen quite a bit in ’15, but you did not hear the term “fast laning,” unless you worked in the industry.  Starbucks, Subway Sandwiches, McDonalds, all have fast-laning options.  This is mostly through company apps.  Basically, all fast food restaurants have this now.  This has saved Americans minutes in the drive thru [sic] lane.  Because the term “fast-laning” did not take off, I’m only giving myself +3 pts.
  18. There will be a consumer backlash against product false claims. Companies will be held more accountable to what they say they can do.
    – I did not see this happen in 2015 in any noticeable way. +0 pts
  19. Early in the year expect a North Korean nuclear test, followed by belligerence, followed by an announced deal. All of this will take place before mid-summer.
    – At the end of Feb/ beginning of March, the US had military exercises and NK fired some missiles in response, coupled with belligerent rhetoric.  However, there was no nuclear test at all.  The North Koreans did talk about nuclear war with the West and threaten such action numerous times.  But, that happens every year. +1 pt
  20. Facebook will further monetize. Look for possible corporate deals. They will possibly develop in-Facebook shopping and/or “pay with Facebook” e-wallet technology.
    – This did not happen in 2015.  I am surprised.  I might just be a year or so off.  We’ll see.  +0 pts

This gives me 58 out of a possible 80 points, or 72.5%.  Getting a C is not bad for a pre-test. -Ryan

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