2014 Predictions – Reviewed

Every year as is tradition, I do my prediction for the upcoming year.  I think that 2014 was actually my worst track record so far.  Anyone wants to score himself well on this kind of test, but I promise to be fair.  So, before I show my 2015 list, let me do my best to score my picks from 2014.  My comments will be in purple.

  1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average high on January 1st was 16,500+.  On the last trading day of the year, The Dow will be a net loss (under 16,500) for the year.  I am guessing that there will be a large correction period this year, but it could also be from fallout from a major political event, or a world event.

OK, this wasn’t even close.  The Dow Jones ended the year over 18,000.  There was one dip in mid-October to under 16,500, but other than that moment, the stock market was on a rocket upwards the whole year.  By the way, that is the case for every year since 2010.  It seems nonsensical to me, which is why I made the prediction.  It still seems like a house of cards, but in January of last year, I was…

MrWrong

 

  1. There will be a major political change in North Korea.  I cannot see the Kim Jung Un regime lasting another 12 months.  I know that part of North Korea’s strategy is to appear weaker than it actually is (see Stratfor’s analysis), but I think the regime is more tenuous than many believe.  This regime change will likely come from an internal coup rather than an external invasion.  I must admit that this is more wish than anything, but I do believe this has a good likelihood.

There was the time that Little Kim disappeared for a few weeks, but all-in-all the story of the year was North Korea’s quiet.  We barely heard a peep out of them.  They’ve got to be getting antsy, but at least for 2014 I was…

MrWrong

  1. The NSA related security issue will be one of the biggest stories of 2014, just like it was this year.  However, part of 2014′s story will be about the private sector trying to both solve consumers’ desire for security.  There will be new products and maybe even new companies creating products and services to safeguard consumers’ private data.  Some of these will be mostly hoaxes, although there might be some new creative technology.  There will also be a rising popular push for keeping private information off of the internet

I think I did quite well on this one.  The NSA and data was a huge story in 2014.  There was the launch of the new iPhone with data encryption (much to the consternation of the government) and there were quite a number of new businesses founded (see several interviews with Mark Cuban about 3 separate businesses he’s invested in over the last yar).  I count this one…

Right

Bonus

  1. There is a high likelihood of Israel being a much more significant newsmaker than last year.  The possibility of a strike on Iran has increased significantly after the last American and Iranian presidential elections.  The ramifications of this would also be huge.  Even if there is no Israeli strike on Iran, I believe there will be significant West Bank/Palestinian related violence, perhaps even another intifada.

This is a perennial pick for me.  I am always bearish on the Israel situation.  It isn’t really schadenfreude.  But, as compared to usual, it was not a violent year in 2014, so I’m…

MrWrong

  1. Gas prices will end the year lower than the $3.12 they are at now.

Average US gas price on the last day of the year: about $2,20.  Enough said, but just for fun…


Right

  1. Hollywood movies will be remarkably more upbeat in tone than they were in 2013.  This will be especially true of the Summer Blockbusters, which will feature less apocalypse porn than in recent years.

Number 3 is harder to examine.  This is because a couple of the movies are mixed.  For instance, (not counting movies that started in late December, but earned their money mostly in 2015) the biggest movie of 2014 was Hunger Games: Mokingjay.  This was certainly an post-apocalyptic-type tale, but it is the turn of the story where things become hopeful.  So I think it doesn’t count for or against my prediction.  Of the other movies in the top 10, the only one that could be considered true apocalypse-porn is the Transformers movie (please stop watching Michael Bay movies, people).   It is hard for me to count that as even a true movie.  I think most would agree that movies seemed less angsty this last year.  So…


Right

  1. Hilary Clinton will formally announce her candidacy for President this Summer.  She will announce this Spring that she is going on a “listening tour” and will announce her presidency surrounded by a sense that people are crying out for her to run.

Give me some credit.  She did go to Iowa and around the country on a listening tour.  Everyone knows she will run.  There is a “Time for Hilary” Pac.  In 2014, everyone assumed that her presidency was a foregone conclusion, at least until everyone realized how much they hated Obama.  She didn’t declare, But at least give me 40% on this one. Let’s say…

halfemptyglass

I’m going to give myself a C on that one.  I get 3.5 our of 6  This is the worst I’ve done.  It seems to me that a D would be 50-50 in this case, and an F would be more wrong than right (I’m not going by true percentages).

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