2015 Predictions

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Every year I create my predictions for the year ahead. It seems like I’m beating an old horse to explain this, but once again this is not astrology or psychic power (as you might realize by reading my analysis of 2014’s predictions). I’m just making my best guess as to what the news in the coming year might include. No one reads this anyway, so I really just do it as a game for myself.

I wrote these down on the first week of January because my website hosting has been a bit of a debacle lately. I have witnesses to this, if anyone wants to doubt me. So, without further adieu…

  1. Hilary Clinton will announce her candidacy for President, probably in late summer through the end of November. There will be a strong and active lead-up to this. They will also attempt to hide Bill as much as possible, at least until Summer.
  2. Republicans will announce throughout 2015. It will be a large group. Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul will all be really active in 2015. You’ll hear from them a lot. They will all likely run.
  3. Who won’t run? Elizabeth Warren, and in a break with tradition…Joe Biden won’t jump in either.
  4. Obama will veto lots and lots of legislation. The Democrat’s story will still be “the do-nothing Congress, that won’t work bipartisanly.” Interestingly, many Dems will vote on measures like the Keystone pipeline, but won’t vote to override the veto. Because of that, it will be surprising how few times there will even be post-veto votes. This is Democrat strategy so that the Dems can claim to have voted for issues that they never supported.
  5. A Supreme Court vacancy will come up. Ruth Ginsburgh is looking likely to me. This will likely be tied to health-related issues. When it happens, it will happen fast.
  6. The Conservatives will get a big court win on either Benghazi, IRS bad behavior, Obamacare, Executive actions, and/or Obama’s immigration action.
  7. More gay marriage court action legalizing gay marriage. The Supreme Court will rule favorably to gay marriage, maybe steering clear of a sweeping legalization. Gay marriage states will increase.
  8. Radio Shack bankrupt—and gone. ***I wrote this one down 5 days prior to the news on January 15th that Radio Shack would likely file for Chapter 11 in the first week of February. I’m not saying that it was a long shot then, but there had been no announcement.
  9. At some point this year the Fed will increase the interest rate
  10. The “Internet of things” will really visibly increase. This will also be due to the falling prices of Internet-connective things.
  11. There will be news of companies doing wacky viral-esque stunts. Some of these will be really cool (look for socially conscious stuff) and some will be massively embarrassing failures.
  12. There will be a big number of attempted terrorist attacks in Europe and America. Some of these might be successful. The attacks this year in Paris are only the beginning. Europe will be the new front for a lot of Muslim violence.
  13. Iran will not follow through with its nuclear deal with the US
  14. Russia will have more military actions, possibly in Ukraine and maybe including Belarus.
  15. A-la cart TV on the Internet will finally come to fruition, and not just with a couple of channels like HBO. Some channels will do this through their websites and some will partner with existing providers like Netfilx and Amazon.
  16. There will be much more talk from the Left on “income inequality,” minimum wage, the rich getting richer, especially in the first half of the year.
  17. You’ll start hearing the term “Fast-Laning,” This will be one of the words of the year. There will be a rise in no-wait services and products—many through company apps.
  18. There will be a consumer backlash against product false claims. Companies will be held more accountable to what they say they can do.
  19. Early in the year expect a North Korean nuclear test, followed by belligerence, followed by an announced deal. All of this will take place before mid-summer.
  20. Facebook will further monetize. Look for possible corporate deals. They will possibly develop in-Facebook shopping and/or “pay with Facebook” ewallet technology.

2014 Predictions – Reviewed

Every year as is tradition, I do my prediction for the upcoming year.  I think that 2014 was actually my worst track record so far.  Anyone wants to score himself well on this kind of test, but I promise to be fair.  So, before I show my 2015 list, let me do my best to score my picks from 2014.  My comments will be in purple.

  1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average high on January 1st was 16,500+.  On the last trading day of the year, The Dow will be a net loss (under 16,500) for the year.  I am guessing that there will be a large correction period this year, but it could also be from fallout from a major political event, or a world event.

OK, this wasn’t even close.  The Dow Jones ended the year over 18,000.  There was one dip in mid-October to under 16,500, but other than that moment, the stock market was on a rocket upwards the whole year.  By the way, that is the case for every year since 2010.  It seems nonsensical to me, which is why I made the prediction.  It still seems like a house of cards, but in January of last year, I was…

MrWrong

 

  1. There will be a major political change in North Korea.  I cannot see the Kim Jung Un regime lasting another 12 months.  I know that part of North Korea’s strategy is to appear weaker than it actually is (see Stratfor’s analysis), but I think the regime is more tenuous than many believe.  This regime change will likely come from an internal coup rather than an external invasion.  I must admit that this is more wish than anything, but I do believe this has a good likelihood.

There was the time that Little Kim disappeared for a few weeks, but all-in-all the story of the year was North Korea’s quiet.  We barely heard a peep out of them.  They’ve got to be getting antsy, but at least for 2014 I was…

MrWrong

  1. The NSA related security issue will be one of the biggest stories of 2014, just like it was this year.  However, part of 2014′s story will be about the private sector trying to both solve consumers’ desire for security.  There will be new products and maybe even new companies creating products and services to safeguard consumers’ private data.  Some of these will be mostly hoaxes, although there might be some new creative technology.  There will also be a rising popular push for keeping private information off of the internet

I think I did quite well on this one.  The NSA and data was a huge story in 2014.  There was the launch of the new iPhone with data encryption (much to the consternation of the government) and there were quite a number of new businesses founded (see several interviews with Mark Cuban about 3 separate businesses he’s invested in over the last yar).  I count this one…

Right

Bonus

  1. There is a high likelihood of Israel being a much more significant newsmaker than last year.  The possibility of a strike on Iran has increased significantly after the last American and Iranian presidential elections.  The ramifications of this would also be huge.  Even if there is no Israeli strike on Iran, I believe there will be significant West Bank/Palestinian related violence, perhaps even another intifada.

This is a perennial pick for me.  I am always bearish on the Israel situation.  It isn’t really schadenfreude.  But, as compared to usual, it was not a violent year in 2014, so I’m…

MrWrong

  1. Gas prices will end the year lower than the $3.12 they are at now.

Average US gas price on the last day of the year: about $2,20.  Enough said, but just for fun…


Right

  1. Hollywood movies will be remarkably more upbeat in tone than they were in 2013.  This will be especially true of the Summer Blockbusters, which will feature less apocalypse porn than in recent years.

Number 3 is harder to examine.  This is because a couple of the movies are mixed.  For instance, (not counting movies that started in late December, but earned their money mostly in 2015) the biggest movie of 2014 was Hunger Games: Mokingjay.  This was certainly an post-apocalyptic-type tale, but it is the turn of the story where things become hopeful.  So I think it doesn’t count for or against my prediction.  Of the other movies in the top 10, the only one that could be considered true apocalypse-porn is the Transformers movie (please stop watching Michael Bay movies, people).   It is hard for me to count that as even a true movie.  I think most would agree that movies seemed less angsty this last year.  So…


Right

  1. Hilary Clinton will formally announce her candidacy for President this Summer.  She will announce this Spring that she is going on a “listening tour” and will announce her presidency surrounded by a sense that people are crying out for her to run.

Give me some credit.  She did go to Iowa and around the country on a listening tour.  Everyone knows she will run.  There is a “Time for Hilary” Pac.  In 2014, everyone assumed that her presidency was a foregone conclusion, at least until everyone realized how much they hated Obama.  She didn’t declare, But at least give me 40% on this one. Let’s say…

halfemptyglass

I’m going to give myself a C on that one.  I get 3.5 our of 6  This is the worst I’ve done.  It seems to me that a D would be 50-50 in this case, and an F would be more wrong than right (I’m not going by true percentages).