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Today’s Video Infection

Thought this was pretty cool/funny.  I am a Tebow fan, but I was more impressed by the cleverness of the remix.

New Toothbrush

Peichi recently purchased a new electric toothbrush.  It is the kind that using some sort of sonic action to clean your teeth, while rotating bristles clean your teeth like at a miniature car wash.  I am not sure why sound waves lead to particularly great oral hygiene, and I told her that she could save [...]

Predictions for 2012

It’s that time of year again: time for my predictions for 2012!

Just to clarify (as always) this no attempt at fortune-telling, tea reading, astrology, or anything involving animal entrails.  Instead, I am estimating what I think might happen according to everything from Game Theory and analysis to gut feeling.  Some things I get pretty accurately.  Other times I am flat wrong.  It seems to me that I have a pretty decent track record, but the only reason that I do this is for fun.

The challenge is for anyone to do this along with me, and see who gets things the most right.  So, here goes…

Politics

• The one thing I always hate doing is presidential politics.  It seems to me that in any election cycle anything over one month off is a political eternity, but there are a few points that I think will be big influences.
  • Anyone but Romney will have a hard time winning at all, because they are too flash-in-the-pan-y.  Every other candidate has such big negatives that it will be pretty easy for Obama to paint them as either evil or crazy.  Ron Paul seems to be the one exception to that, but he does his own job of making himself seem crazy by opening his mouth.
  • Romney’s challenge will be to motivate the Republican base.  In the ridiculously long primary season, the fact that almost everyone has taken their turn at leading is a really bad sign for Romney.  It is almost an anyone but Romney attitude that might be hard for him to overcome.
  • Because of the above points, the chance of a last-minute third party run by someone seems good, but that would lose the election for the Republican, no matter who it is.
  • Really poor economy pre-election loses the race for Obama.
  • A war probably loses the election for Obama also.
  • Even an illusion of a good economy seals the election for Obama
  • All of this is completely negated by major unforseen circumstances, which will probably happen.
• Come Summer no one will be occupying anything
• Summer will see revitalized Tea Party activity
• Immigration will be an even bigger issue than last year

World Events

• I hope that I am wrong–A terror attack on US soil which will involve attackers getting here via Mexico.  This will spark a major tense discussion of border issues.
  • As I see it Game Theory-ed out, this is in the terrorists best interests.  Although my experience has taught me that the formidable-ness of this particular opponent is definitely not in their thoughtfulness, this seems in their best interest.  We have taken the fight to them.  Al Qaida is mostly wiped out.  I have read several articles regarding this, and they have recently raised the idea of negotiating with us (through the Taliban).  In radical islamic strategy, this is the step to take when one is on his heels.  Attacking the US homeland would make sense.  Further, in bringing it from Mexico (also easier to sneak in that way) it would create an internal fight in the US.  With a huge percentage of the population being illegally from Mexico, and without allegiance to the US, it would create turmoil.  If I were a strategiest for them, I would be looking at that idea.  This is the type of process that I go through in determining all of my guesses.
• I am praying that there is a constitutional backlash against the dangerous laws that have been passed to curtail citizens’ rights for the sake of security.  This combined with the above could cause massive chaos politically in the US.  This might be beneficial in the long run, but won’t be fun.
• Military action involving Iran.  It won’t be pretty.  If it doesn’t happen, look for massive war in the future.  If it does happen, there might be war now.  Further, this would seriously hurt the US economy.  This will be an important moment for Obama.  If he allows conflict with Iran it hurts the economy and is another war.  These are the 2 things that would prevent his re-election.  If he doesn’t push Iran, then it will probably cause big problems for the US and our allies into the future.
• North Korea will stay totalitarian communist.  It is in China’s best interest.  Though it could be a tense year for the two Koreas.

Pop Culture

• Lady Gaga gets involved in even weirder stuff.  I know that this seems like a non-prediction (like saying there will be weather), I am serious.
• Facebook will lose users for the first time in its history.
• The world will not end in December.  No planet will pass near the earth.  There will be no magnetic pole shift.  But pop culture will get really obnoxious about the end of the world as you know it by year’s end.  There will be a movie or two.
• The summer movie season will be populated by even more over-hyped action junk than usual.  There will also be a much higher rate of raunchy comedies. -Ryan

English Problems

Of the many things in our culture that seem to be signposts of our crumbling civilization, few seem as striking to me as Americans growing inability to speak and write our one language.  The more focused one becomes on grammar and spelling, the more they appear everywhere.  I see typos in newspapers, unintelligible cyphers on signs, and then this–from the back of a tree service pickup in front of my store in Dallas.   Can you spot the error?  I’ve talked to quite a few people who cannot.

From Summer 2011

Finally, Texas is Complete

This is from today’s trip to In ‘N Out Burger off of the 75 freeway.  It just opened this week.

I feel that this year is now a success.  I have accomplished all that I want to.  Now I will do nothing for 6 months.

From Summer 2011

What Does the Bible Really Say?

At church on Tuesday, we were discussing how our actions, both good and bad, affect our eternity.  Does God work things out like a giant scale and measure whether our good deeds outweigh our evil ones?

“Because we sin, we cannot be in the presence of God or we will die.  But because Jesus died as the perfect sacrifice, he can forgive our sins, and wipe the slate clean.  In order to get to heaven we need to have a relationship with him  He won’t want to hang out with us if we don’t know him.” -Jessica actually typed this here.  Yes, she really wrote this!

Is this what the Bible actually says?  The first person with a well thought through and studied answer to this in the comments section will win a $5 Starbucks gift card.  The person with the most well thought out and researched answer will also win the same prize.

My Favorite Picture

Now I am officially no longer a regular part of the Barnes and Noble staff.  I feel really sad in some way.  I have loved the people and the company.

My first store was the old North Arlington store, which houses some weird electronics store now.  We had a party on one of the last days there, and celebrated our manager, Janey, who was one of the best managers I can ever remember having.  We had an amazing crew, and she should get the credit.

We presented her with some gifts that we had all pitched in for.  One of them was a framed picture of the store that I had taken.  It is an HDR image (for High Dynamic Range).

From Art shots

The way a  camera works, it can only capture a much narrower spectrum of light than the human eye can.  That is why when you take a picture of your friends in front of a beautiful sunset they are either completely black shadows, or the sunset appears overly bright and less colorful.  Photographers try to get around this is by using a flash, but that never reproduces the image the way the human eye sees it.  The flash washes color out, or colors the image unnaturally.

An HDR image fixes this.  In order to create one, you have to take multiple shots at different shutter speeds.  I believe this one had somewhere between 8 and 10.  Then you merge them into one image, making the areas that would be too dark just right, and the areas that would be too bright darker.  The image that results is a little surreal at times, but is much more accurate than a single photo ever could produce.

I don’t believe that this is a perfect  HDR shot, or even a really great one, but it is good work for me, and it is an image of something that I have a real emotional tie to.  This image means a lot to me.

Some Things to Think About

Via: Online Psychology Degree

Praying for Japan

A lot has been said about Japan in the media over the last few days.  I honestly have no idea what I can say, but I feel compelled.  I want to do or say anything I can to make it better.  I am struck by the horrible suffering in the midst of mounting tragedy.  But there is little I can say or do.  Please pray for comfort and healing for this noble nation.

This picture says more than anything I could.  I hope this AP photographer, Asahi Shimbun, wins the Pulitzer.

Absent

I just read this article online.  Please take a minute to read this excerpt from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel online.

Madison — Law enforcement officers are searching for Democratic senators boycotting a Senate vote on Gov. Scott Walker’s budget-repair plan Thursday in an attempt to bring the lawmakers to the floor to allow Republicans to act on the bill.

As Republicans denounced the move, one Democratic senator said that he believed most of the members of his caucus are in another state. However, an aide said that at least one, Sen. Chris Larson (D-Milwaukee), was still in his Capitol office listening to constituents.

In a telephone interview, Senate Minority Leader Mark Miller (D-Monona) declined to give his location but acknowledged that at least one other Democrat was with him. He said that law enforcement would be able to compel him and his members to the Senate floor if they are located in Wisconsin.

“I can tell you this – we’re not all in one place,” Miller said. “This is a watershed moment unlike any that we have experienced in our political lifetimes. The people have shown that the government has gone too far . . .  We are prepared to do what is necessary to make sure that this bill gets the consideration it needs.”

Fighting Quorum

Basically, the Wisconsin legislature (under the governor’s direction) is trying to pass legislation that significantly reduces  the ability of unions in the state to hold the upper-hand in negotiating contracts with the government.  This would enable them to set salaries and benefits for state workers that are more reasonable in light of the seriousness of the government’s economic situation.

The reaction in Wisconsin has been teacher strikes, marches on the state capitol, and loud complaining by Democrats.  Though of course state workers would want to have the best bargaining positions possible, the state is facing a $3 billion shortfall in its budget over the next 2 years.  That means they are going to have to make serious cuts, or  face bankruptcy.

Democrats feel they have no choice but to resist this.  The unions are both a major source of funding and voters, although there is no chance that the union voters will abandon them even if this passes.  However, the Republicans have a majority in the Wisconsin congress, so the Democrats can’t do much to stop them.  The Dems were in a situation where they could not possibly win.

So the Democrats left.  They walked out and hid.  This would seem silly, except that it creates a problem in parliamentary procedure, the rules that govern how the legislature is run.  In order to take a valid vote, the legislature needs something called quorum.  Quorum is the number of members that must be present in order for any action to be valid, and is greater than the number it takes to pass a law.

The quorum rule was created to prevent a minority from holding a secret session, or meeting during some sort of emergency that prevented most members from attending, and passing some strange law.  But the rule of quorum was never intended to be used as a blunt instrument to prevent democracy from working when a minority didn’t like what was happening.  This kind of action is unfortunately not atypical of the kind of tactics that Democrats have played throughout the years, but it is a very bad sign for the gridlock that could be coming in many states and nationally.

What neither the state Democrats, nor anyone in the media seem to be asking is, “What is the best thing to do for the state’s $3 billion defecit?”

The Real World

America needs to wake up!  Nationally for the first time since World War 2, our country owes more money than we have in our entire budget.  The national debt is currently $14 trillion, with total obligations above $55 trillion.  But these numbers seem to be too big to really wrap one’s mind around.  So maybe an easier scale would help to make this all make more sense.

Let’s say a small family (father, mother, and small child) have a yearly income of $50,000.  But by the end of this year, the family will owe over $50,000 to the credit card companies, more than their entire income for the year.  All of that would be a difficult situation, but not impossible.  The problem is that every month, even though the family gets a salary of over $4,166, they are keep spending $4,582.  So, each month they are more than $400 in debt more than the month before.  This is obviously an impossible situation.  It won’t be long before the credit card companies cut the family’s credit line and sue them.  They will go bankrupt.

Any family would have to sit down and start cutting their budget.  That might mean moving to a smaller house or apartment, selling a car, not eating out.  They would have to make these changes, no matter how much they didn’t want to.  Anything that was not necessary to keep them alive would have to be cut so that they would be able to pay off the debt.

But many in America are loath to see this happen nationally.  There have been protests over the proposed de-funding of PBS.  Recently, some lawmakers even held a press conference with characters dressed as cartoons from popular PBS series, trying to drum up support to “save these shows.”  On the radio, callers have talked about the Republicans “killing Big Bird.”

Killing Big Bird

No one wants to “kill big bird.”  These TV shows are important in American culture and life.  Many children have learned important things from these programs.  But they are just that, TV shows.  PBS can go away if need be, and America will go on, children will learn about the alphabet, and people will be forced to go to the opera instead of just watching it on television.  People will miss PBS.  Maybe the arts will be less supported and there won’t be as many educational TV shows.  Everyone would miss PBS.  No one likes to reduce spending.

The point is that things must be cut.  Some of these things will be government programs that people love, and often count on.  There will probably be few if any budget items that no one will miss, in the same way that the fictional family in the previous illustration will probably miss going to the movies and living in their 4 bedroom house.  But the truth is that there are very few, if any, government programs that don’t affect anyone in some way.  And if any do exist, they aren’t taking up that much of the budget anyway.

When the Democrats walk out of legislatures and hold press conferences with cartoon characters they send a clear message that they are unwilling to do the difficult things that must be done to save the country.  They also send a clear message that their political power and fund raising efforts are more important than the good of America.  If the country is going to pull itself out of this horrible mess, this kind of budgetary brinkmanship must be avoided at all costs. -Ryan